Commercial property rates post sharpest decline in a decade, Willis report finds

Rates for large and complex property programs fell 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, with shared and layered placements down 23.41 percent, as the multiyear hard market reverses course across North America

NEW YORK, Oct. 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), today released the fall 2026 edition of its Insurance Marketplace Realities report, examining rate predictions and market conditions across more than thirty lines of commercial insurance in North America.

Large and complex property rates fell an average of 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 8.4 percent a year earlier, as competition among insurers intensified. Shared and layered programs, placements with five or more carriers, saw average declines of 23.41 percent, up from 14.57 percent in the second quarter of 2025. The market has now moved from the depths of the 2018 through 2024 hard market toward pricing last seen in 2019.

The report, “The Specialist View: Navigating Tomorrow's Risk Landscape for 2027,” reflects on how specialization across lines is helping clients navigate accelerating technology risk, including new exposures tied to artificial intelligence and data infrastructure investment.

"Clients are navigating a market being reshaped by specialization and technology at the same time," said Jackie Bolig, Head of Placement and Broking Solutions for North America at Willis. "The pace of change, particularly around AI and data infrastructure, means brokers can’t operate in silos. Our clients need advisors who connect the dots across their full risk profile."

Additional findings include:

• Global insured catastrophe losses reached 107 billion dollars in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above 100 billion, even as the first half of 2026 produced the lowest total since 2020
• Auto liability and umbrella/excess lines for high hazard risks remain under pressure as does high hazard general liability risks
• Cyber rates are holding roughly flat between a 5 percent decrease and a 5 percent increase, and the report urges buyers to reinvest any savings into higher limits given the continued rise of AI enabled ransomware and data exfiltration threats.
  
  

Casualty tells a different story than property. Auto liability and general/excess liability lines (including lead umbrella) for high hazard risks remain under pressure from nuclear verdicts and social inflation. The report also highlights early indications that rate increases in the excess casualty market may be nearing their peak, driven in part by new capacity entering the market through broker-led facilities, including WTW’s Gemini, as well as newly established managing general agents and underwriting agents.

"Rates and risk are no longer moving in the same direction across every line, and that gap is where our clients need the most guidance," said Bolig. "Property buyers have room to negotiate this cycle. Casualty and specialty buyers need to plan for a market that is still correcting for verdict severity and emerging technology risk."

The full Insurance Marketplace Realities report, covering rate predictions across major product lines, professional liability lines and specialty lines and solutions, is available here.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk, and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce, and maximize performance. Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you.

Media Contacts

Lauren Ryan
Lauren.ryan@wtwco.com